What Enfield can expect from climate change

Enfield

The National Climate Assessment report released Friday provides a broad outline of how climate change may impact us. This report breaks the impacts down by region, and Connecticut is part of the Northeast region.

It doesn't mention Enfield specifically, but from this report it's possible to outline how climate change will impact our town. The major concern for us will be an increase risk of flooding.

In our region, climate change is increasing the amount of rainfall -- especially heavy rainfalls. It is raising temperatures. Our winters will be shorter. Here is a link to the Northeast chapter.

Enfield's flooding risk is directly associated with powerful hurricanes and hurricanes are getting more intense. The 1955 flood is probably our best and most recent illustration of how a severe storm may impact the town.

Climate change is expected to increase the risk of big storms.  The report notes:

First, the ability of four hurricanes—Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria (Figure 2.9)—to rapidly reach and maintain very high intensity was anomalous and, in one case, unprecedented. This is consistent with the expectation of stronger storms in a warmer world. All four of these hurricanes experienced rapid intensification, and Irma shattered the existing record for the length of time over which it sustained winds of 185 miles per hour.

Second, the intensity of heavy rain, including heavy rain produced by tropical cyclones, increases in a warmer world (Figure 2.6). Easterling et al. (2017) concluded that the heaviest rainfall amounts from intense storms, including hurricanes, have increased by 6% to 7%, on average, compared to what they would have been a century ago. In particular, both Harvey and Maria were distinguished by record-setting rainfall amounts. Harvey’s multiday total rainfall likely exceeded that of any known historical storm in the continental United States, while Maria’s rainfall intensity was likely even greater than Harvey’s, with some locations in Puerto Rico receiving multiple feet of rain in just 24 hours.

The impacts of climate change are not even in the U.S. or globally, and this is why this report breaks the impacts down by region. The Southwest, in contrast, will see increasing heat, drought and declining water supplies.

The root cause of this problem is well understood. Our reliance on fossil fuels is increasing the amount of CO2, which captures heat and warms the planet. The amount of CO2 entering the atmosphere is occurring at a fast rate.

The Northeast will not only seen an increase in rainfall, but an increase in rainfall intensity, according to this report. Rainfall intensity is the measure of the amount of rain that falls during a certain period. Most of the increases in total precipitation will happen during the winter and spring.

Enfield's flood zone data map shows the areas in town that are susceptible under various scenarios.

Freshwater Brook could be a major problem. The map shows how the book can flood out a major part of the town's mall and shopping plaza area. But there are other areas in town that may be impacted. Homes in the area of Meadowlark Road are among them.

This is an excerpt of a flood map for Enfield. It show's Enfield's flood risk under various scenarios. The blue shows the risk from storms ranging from 100-year to 500-year storms. The darker the blue, the greater the flooding impact. The worse case is a 500-year flood, which means that a flood of this caliber has a 1-in-500 chance of occuring in any given year. These types of extreme floods are becoming more common. Map source is the state Dept. of Environmental Protection.

Flood risk areas in the northeast section of Enfield

The challenges of protecting the town may increase in the years and decades ahead,. This may mean more infrastructure spending.

Temperatures will increase and the winter will be shorter.  The graph below is from the just released report. It telling us that the kids and young adults will be living in a much different world.

The problems go well beyond the flooding and the temperature impacts. Changes in growing seasons have major impact on wildlife and natural habitats. Species extinction is a growing problem. The oceans are warming, and fish and shellfish are moving to different locations. Disease risks increases as certain types of mosquitoes move further north. We are just beginning to understand the consequences of our actions. 

(About the author: My interest in this topic is nothing more than citizen trying to staying informed. In the Navy, I was an enlisted assigned to the Naval Weather Service. My training was in observation, measurement and short-term forecasting, not climate.)